[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebound on June 25, with the central bank conducting 300 billion yuan MLF operations

SMM Nickel June 25 News:

Macro News:

(1) US Fed Governor and recently departed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr stated on Tuesday that he expects President Trump's tariff policies to exert upward pressure on prices, which may not be temporary. AlthoughBarr believes inflation is currently moving "slowly and unevenly" toward the Fed's 2% target, his latest remarks suggested "no urgency to cut interest rates."

(2) To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF (medium-term lending facility) operation via fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price bidding, with a 1-year maturity. Given the 182 billion yuan MLF maturing in June, this resulted in a net injection of 118 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive month of the central bank's oversubscribed MLF rollover.

Spot Market:

Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices ranged between 118,050-121,050 yuan/mt, averaging 119,550 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,900-3,100 yuan/mt, averaging 3,000 yuan/mt, flat from the prior session. The spot premiums/discounts quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel stood at 0-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2507) opened higher today for a technical rebound: the night session closed down 0.39% at 117,690 yuan/mt, while LME nickel gained 0.44% to $14,905/mt. The daytime session opened higher and extended gains, briefly surging to 117,930 yuan/mt. By the midday close, SHFE nickel was quoted at 117,990 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt (0.65%).

The refined nickel surplus remains difficult to reverse, with the price center likely to gradually decline. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound between 115,000-121,000 yuan/mt. Ore price support and cost lines form a bottom, but macro risk-off sentiment and inventory pressure cap rebound momentum.